2018 Emmy Predictions

The Academy of Television Arts & Sciences announced the nominations for the 70th Primetime Emmy Awards yesterday, and although I’m often not part of the conversation for this new “Golden Age of TV,” I have some ideas of who will end up taking home the awards. They’re most likely incredibly terrible ideas, but it’s always fun to wildly speculate. After the ceremony is held on September 17, hosted by Michael Che and Colin Jost, I’ll return and break down exactly just how terrible I did.

And to be clear, I won’t be predicting for the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards because there are an insane number of granular categories, although I must admit I have to fight some of my more obsessive tendencies to do so. And there are some great awards and things I enjoy in there, like animated shows, production design, and non-fiction programs. As for the main ceremony: Netflix led the pack of major nominations with 36, ending HBO’s 18-year domination (by just one nomination) and hitting the top itself for the first time. This clearly indicates the rapidly changing nature of television, an oft-discussed topic that warrants a whole other discussion some other time.

Sandra Oh in KILLING EVE

Suffice to say, the current merging of AT&T and Time Warner has been reported to have an impact on the future of HBO, with the legacy premium cable channel that has denoted quality television for decades to apparently pivot to a streaming model with a greater quantity of shows and a more ubiquitous presence. Yeah, that works well for the quality of the average Netflix show/movie.

Anyways. I’m glad Sandra Oh made Emmy history as the first Asian woman nominated for the lead actress award. Every time one of these milestones is reached, I am baffled that, in the numerous decades the major award shows have been around, they haven’t already happened. Well, I guess I’m not super surprised, especially for the Emmys, certainly the most conservative and traditional (read: boring) of the major award shows for each medium. I can’t really speak to the “snubs” for the year, but it is pretty crazy that TWIN PEAKS: THE RETURN (2017) didn’t receive nominations for any major category, and I would have loved to see the recently ended DESUS & MERO (2016–18) show up somewhere. OK, let’s get into the predictions! I’ll list the nominees and bold who I will think will actually receive the award and/or my favorite in the event that I really just don’t have an educated guess for who will win. The latter is probably most likely.

Outstanding Comedy Series

• ATLANTA
• BARRY
• BLACK-ISH
• CURB YOUR ENTHUSIASM
• GLOW
• THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL
• SILICON VALLEY
• UNBREAKABLE KIMMY SCHMIDT

Outstanding Drama Series

• THE AMERICANS
• THE CROWN
• GAME OF THRONES
• THE HANDMAID’S TALE
• STRANGER THINGS
• THIS IS US
• WESTWORLD

Outstanding Variety Talk Series

• THE DAILY SHOW WITH TREVOR NOAH
• FULL FRONTAL WITH SAMANTHA BEE
• JIMMY KIMMEL LIVE!
• LAST WEEK TONIGHT WITH JOHN OLIVER
• THE LATE LATE SHOW WITH JAMES CORDEN
• THE LATE SHOW WITH STEPHEN COLBERT

Outstanding Variety Sketch Series

• AT HOME WITH AMY SEDARIS
• DRUNK HISTORY
• I LOVE YOU, AMERICA WITH SARAH SILVERMAN
• PORTLANDIA
• SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE
• TRACEY ULLMAN’S SHOW

Outstanding Limited Series

• THE ALIENIST
• THE ASSASSINATION OF GIANNI VERSACE: AMERICAN CRIME STORY
• GENIUS: PICASSO
• GODLESS
• PATRICK MELROSE

Outstanding Television Movie

• BLACK MIRROR: USS CALLISTER
• FAHRENHEIT 451
• FLINT
• PATERNO
• THE TALE

Outstanding Reality-Competition Program

• THE AMAZING RACE
• AMERICAN NINJA WARRIOR
• PROJECT RUNWAY
• RUPAUL’S DRAG RACE
• TOP CHEF
• THE VOICE

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

• Anthony Anderson on BLACK-ISH
• Ted Danson on THE GOOD PLACE
• Larry David on CURB YOUR ENTHUSIASM
• Donald Glover on ATLANTA
• Bill Hader on BARRY
• William H. Macy on SHAMELESS

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

• Pamela Adlon on BETTER THINGS
• Rachel Brosnahan on THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL
• Allison Janney on MOM
• Issa Rae on INSECURE
• Tracee Ellis Ross on BLACK-ISH
• Lily Tomlin on GRACE AND FRANKIE

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

• Jason Bateman on OZARK
• Sterling K. Brown on THIS IS US
• Ed Harris on WESTWORLD
• Matthew Rhys on THE AMERICANS
• Milo Ventimiglia on THIS IS US
• Jeffrey Wright on WESTWORLD

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

• Claire Foy on THE CROWN
• Tatiana Maslany on ORPHAN BLACK
• Elisabeth Moss on THE HANDMAID’S TALE
• Sandra Oh on KILLING EVE
• Keri Russell on THE AMERICANS
• Evan Rachel Wood on WESTWORLD

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie

• Antonio Banderas on GENIUS: PICASSO
• Darren Criss on THE ASSASSINATION OF GIANNI VERSACE: AMERICAN CRIME STORY
• Benedict Cumberbatch on PATRICK MELROSE
• Jeff Daniels on THE LOOMING TOWER
• John Legend on JESUS CHRIST SUPERSTAR LIVE IN CONCERT
• Jesse Plemons on BLACK MIRROR: USS CALLISTER

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie

• Jessica Biel on THE SINNER
• Laura Dern on THE TALE
• Michelle Dockery on GODLESS
• Edie Falco on LAW & ORDER TRUE CRIME: THE MENENDEZ MURDERS
• Regina King on SEVEN SECONDS
• Sarah Paulson on AMERICAN HORROR STORY: CULT

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

• Louie Anderson on BASKETS
• Alec Baldwin on SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE
• Tituss Burgess on UNBREAKABLE KIMMY SCHMIDT
• Brian Tyree Henry on ATLANTA
• Tony Shalhoub on THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL
• Kenan Thompson on SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE
• Henry Winkler on BARRY

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

• Zazie Beetz on ATLANTA
• Alex Borstein on THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL
• Aidy Bryant on SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE
• Betty Gilpin on GLOW
• Leslie Jones on SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE
• Kate McKinnon on SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE
• Laurie Metcalf on ROSEANNE
• Megan Mullaly on WILL & GRACE

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

• Nikolaj Coster-Waldau on GAME OF THRONES
• Peter Dinklage on GAME OF THRONES
• Joseph Fiennes on THE HANDMAID’S TALE
• David Harbour on STRANGER THINGS
• Mandy Patinkin on HOMELAND
• Matt Smith on THE CROWN

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

• Alexis Bledel on THE HANDMAID’S TALE
• Millie Bobby Brown on STRANGER THINGS
• Ann Dowd on THE HANDMAID’S TALE
• Lena Heady on GAME OF THRONES
• Vanessa Kirby on THE CROWN
• Thandie Newton on WESTWORLD
• Yvonne Strahovski on THE HANDMAID’S TALE

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie

• Jeff Daniels on GODLESS
• Brandon Victor Dixon on JESUS CHRIST SUPERSTAR LIVE IN CONCERT
• John Leguizamo on WACO
• Ricky Martin on THE ASSASSINATION OF GIANNI VERSACE: AMERICAN CRIME STORY
• Édgar Ramírez on THE ASSASSINATION OF GIANNI VERSACE: AMERICAN CRIME STORY
• Michael Stuhlbarg on THE LOOMING TOWER
• Finn Wittrock on THE ASSASSINATION OF GIANNI VERSACE: AMERICAN CRIME STORY

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie

• Sara Bareilles on JESUS CHRIST SUPERSTAR LIVE ON CONCERT
• Penélope Cruz on THE ASSASSINATION OF GIANNI VERSACE: AMERICAN CRIME STORY
• Judith Light on THE ASSASSINATION OF GIANNI VERSACE: AMERICAN CRIME STORY
• Adina Porter on AMERICAN HORROR STORY: CULT
• Merritt Wever on GODLESS
• Letitia Wright on BLACK MIRROR: BLACK MUSEUM

Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series

• ATLANTA (“FUBU”), Donald Glover
• ATLANTA (“Teddy Perkins”), Hiro Murai
• BARRY (“Chapter One: Make Your Mark”), Bill Hader
• THE BIG BANG THEORY (“The Bow Tie Symmetry”), Mark Cendrowski
• GLOW (“Pilot”), Jesse Peretz
• THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL (“Pilot”), Amy Sherman-Palladino
• SILICON VALLEY (“Initial Coin Offering”), Mike Judge

Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series

• THE CROWN (“Paterfamilias”), Stephen Daldry
• GAME OF THRONES (“Beyond the Wall”), Alan Taylor
• GAME OF THRONES (“The Dragon and the Wolf”), Jeremy Podeswa
• THE HANDMAID’S TALE (“After”), Kari Skogland
• OZARK (“The Toll”), Jason Bateman
• OZARK (“Tonight We Improve”), Daniel Sackheim
• STRANGER THINGS (“Chapter Nine: The Gate”), The Duffer Brothers

Outstanding Directing for a Variety Special

• DAVE CHAPELLE: EQUANIMITY, Stan Lathan
• JERRY SEINFELD: JERRY BEFORE SEINFELD, Michael Bonfiglio
• STEVE MARTIN & MARTIN SHORT: AN EVENING YOU WILL FORGET FOR THE REST OF YOUR LIFE, Marcus Raboy
• SUPER BOWL LII HALFTIME SHOW STARRING JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE, Hamish Hamilton
• THE OSCARS, Glenn Weiss

Outstanding Directing for a Limited Series, Movie, or Dramatic Special

• THE ASSASSINATION OF GIANNI VERSACE: AMERICAN CRIME STORY (“The Man Who Would Be Vogue”), Ryan Murphy
• GODLESS, Scott Frank
• JESUS CHRIST SUPERSTAR LIVE IN CONCERT, David Leveaux and Alex Rudzinski
• THE LOOMING TOWER (“9/11”), Craig Zisk
• PATERNO, Barry Levinson
• PATRICK MELROSE, Edward Berger
• TWIN PEAKS, David Lynch

Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series

• ATLANTA (“Alligator Man”), Donald Glover
• ATLANTA (“Barbershop”), Stefani Robinson
• BARRY (“Chapter One: Make Your Mark”), Alec Berg and Bill Hader
• BARRY (“Chapter Seven: Loud, Fast and Keep Going”), Liz Sarnoff
• THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL (“Pilot”), Amy Sherman-Palladino
• SILICON VALLEY (“Fifty-One Percent”), Alec Berg

Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series

• THE AMERICANS (“START”), Joel Fields and Joe Weisberg
• THE CROWN (“Mystery Man”), Peter Morgan
• GAME OF THRONES (“The Dragon and the Wolf”), David Benioff and D.B. Weiss
• THE HANDMAID’S TALE (“June”), Bruce Miller
• KILLING EVE (“Nice Face”), Phoebe Waller-Bridge
• STRANGER THINGS (“Chapter Nine: The Gate”), The Duffer Brothers

Outstanding Writing for a Limited Series, Movie, or Dramatic Special

• AMERICAN VANDAL (“Clean Up”), Kevin McManus and Matthew McManus
• THE ASSASSINATION OF GIANNI VERSACE: AMERICAN CRIME STORY (“House by the Lake”), Tom Rob Smith
• BLACK MIRROR: USS CALLISTER, William Bridges and Charlie Brooker
• GODLESS, Scott Frank
• PATRICK MELROSE, David Nicholls
• TWIN PEAKS, Mark Frost and David Lynch

Outstanding Writing for a Variety Special

• FULL FRONTAL WITH SAMANTHA BEE: THE GREAT AMERICAN* PUERTO RICO (*IT’S COMPLICATED), Samantha Bee, Pat Cassels, Mike Drucker, Eric Drysdale, Mathan Erhardt, Miles Kahn, and Nicole Silverberg
• JOHN MULANEY: KID GORGEOUS AT RADIO CITY, John Mulaney
• MICHELLE WOLF: NICE LADY, Michelle Wolf
• PATTON OSWALT: ANNIHILATION, Patton Oswalt
• STEVE MARTIN & MARTIN SHORT: AN EVENING YOU WILL FORGET FOR THE REST OF YOUR LIFE, Steve Martin and Martin Short

Outstanding Writing for a Nonfiction Program

• ANTHONY BOURDAIN: PARTS UNKNOWN (“Southern Italy”), Anthony Bourdain
• THE DEFIANT ONES (“Episode 1”), Allen Hughes, Lasse Järvi, and Doug Pray
• ICARUS, Bryan Fogel, Mark Monroe, and Jon Bertain
• JANE, Brett Morgen
• MISTER ROGERS: IT’S YOU I LIKE, JoAnn Young
• THE VIETNAM WAR (“The History of the World (April 1969-May 1970)”), Geoffrey C. Ward

Whew, so there we go. Of the 28 category predictions, we’ll see how many I get right! By the way, it’s worth mentioning that THE ASSASSINATION OF GIANNI VERSACE: AMERICAN CRIME STORY received the most nominations with nine, while ATLANTA/THE HANDMAID’S TALE received eight and GAME OF THRONES got seven. Check out all the nominations on the Emmys website.