2021 Oscars Predictions

The nominees for the 93rd Academy Awards were announced today, and perhaps more than any other entertainment industry and awards show, the Oscars are facing a strange new paradigm. COVID-19 changed every facet of life, but music, television, video games, and more were essentially consumed in much the same way they were before. The movies, of course, were not. Certainly, the realities of the streaming world has already been changing viewing habits of the pictures for some time, but the theater experience was totally wiped out for a year-plus. Sure, some people saw TENET in the theater, but the numerous stories about the fall and rise and fall and rise of the theatergoing experience have defined the film press for most of 2020 and all of 2021 so far.

So anyways, that’s the world the Academy Awards were reckoning with for the past year. To cope, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) removed the eligibility requirement of movies needing to play in a theater in Los Angeles county for at least seven days; however, it didn’t open the floodgates to all streaming things (but they did clarify drive-ins could work too). Steven Spielberg would be distraught! Instead, AMPAS opened up eligibility for movies intended for theatrical release that had to go to streaming (don’t know how that was technically defined), and it opened up the eligibility window outside of the calendar year of 2020 to January 1, 2020 to February 28, 2021. It also postponed the ceremony itself to April 25, two months from the planned date, in favor of a hybrid in-person/virtual event.

But in a way, these developments are not unprecedented. The Oscars have been postponed three times before this, and the ceremonies up until the 6th, in 1934, straddled calendar years with their eligibility windows. A new development, however, has brought the typical 24 categories down to 23; Best Sound Mixing and Best Sound Editing were merged down into Best Sound. But as of today, lots of conversations are happening about the snubs and worthy nominees. Rather than evaluate the nominations from a quality perspective, of which MANK saw the most with 10, I’ll mark with a * what I think will actually take home the awards based on the Academy’s votes.

Best Picture

• THE FATHER
• JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
• MANK
• MINARI
• NOMADLAND*
• PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
• SOUND OF METAL
• THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7

Best Director

• Lee Isaac Chung — MINARI
• Emerald Fennell — PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
• David Fincher — MANK
• Thomas Vinterberg — ANOTHER ROUND
• Chloé Zhao — NOMADLAND*

Best Actor

• Riz Ahmed — SOUND OF METAL*
• Chadwick Boseman — MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
• Anthony Hopkins — THE FATHER
• Gary Oldman — MANK
• Steven Yeun — MINARI

Best Actress

• Viola Davis — MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
• Andra Day — THE UNITED STATES VS. BILLIE HOLIDAY
• Vanessa Kirby — PIECES OF A WOMAN
• Frances McDormand — NOMADLAND*
• Carey Mulligan — PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN

Best Supporting Actor

• Sacha Baron Cohen — THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
• Daniel Kaluuya — JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH*
• Leslie Odom Jr. — ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI
• Paul Raci — SOUND OF METAL
• Lakeith Stanfield — JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH

Best Supporting Actress

• Maria Bakalova — BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM: DELIVERY OF PRODIGIOUS BRIBE TO AMERICAN REGIME FOR MAKE BENEFIT ONCE GLORIOUS NATION OF KAZAKHSTAN*
• Glenn Close — HILLBILLY ELEGY
• Olivia Colman — THE FATHER
• Amanda Seyfried — MANK
• Youn Yuh-jung — MINARI

Best Original Screenplay

• JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH*
• MINARI
• PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
• SOUND OF METAL
• THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7

Best Adapted Screenplay

• BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM: DELIVERY OF PRODIGIOUS BRIBE TO AMERICAN REGIME FOR MAKE BENEFIT ONCE GLORIOUS NATION OF KAZAKHSTAN
• THE FATHER
• NOMADLAND*
• ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI
• THE WHITE TIGER

Best Animated Feature Film

• ONWARD
• OVER THE MOON
• A SHAUN THE SHEEP MOVIE: FARMAGEDDON
• SOUL*
• WOLFWALKERS

Best International Feature Film

• ANOTHER ROUND*
• BETTER DAYS
• COLLECTIVE
• THE MAN WHO SOLD HIS SKIN
• QUO VADIS, AIDA?

Best Documentary Feature

• COLLECTIVE*
• CRIP CAMP
• THE MOLE AGENT
• MY OCTOPUS TEACHER
• TIME

Best Documentary Short Subject

• COLETTE
• A CONCERTO IS A CONVERSATION
• DO NOT SPLIT
• HUNGER WARD
• A LOVE SONG FOR LATASHA*

Best Live Action Short Film

• FEELING THROUGH
• THE LETTER ROOM
• THE PRESENT
• TWO DISTANT STRANGERS*
• WHITE EYE

Best Animated Short Film

• BURROW
• GENIUS LOCI
• IF ANYTHING HAPPENS I LOVE YOU*
• OPERA
• YES-PEOPLE

Best Production Design

• THE FATHER
• MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
• MANK*
• NEWS OF THE WORLD
• TENET

Best Cinematography

• JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
• MANK*
• NOMADLAND
• NEWS OF THE WORLD
• THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7

Best Costume Design

• EMMA*
• MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
• MANK
• MULAN
• PINOCCHIO

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• EMMA*
• HILLBILLY ELEGY
• MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
• MANK
• PINOCCHIO

Best Original Score

• DA 5 BLOODS
• MANK*
• MINARI
• NEWS OF THE WORLD
• SOUL

Best Original Song

• “Fight for You” — JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
• “Hear My Voice” — THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
• “Husavik” — EUROVISION SONG CONTEST: THE STORY OF THE FIRE SAGA*
• “Io Sì (Seen)” — THE LIFE AHEAD
• “Speak Now” — ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI

Best Sound

• GREYHOUND
• MANK
• NEWS OF THE WORLD
• SOUL
• SOUND OF METAL*

Best Film Editing

• THE FATHER
• NOMADLAND*
• PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
• SOUND OF METAL
• THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7

Best Visual Effects

• LOVE AND MONSTERS
• THE MIDNIGHT SKY
• MULAN
• THE ONE AND ONLY IVAN
• TENET*

Well, from my predictions, NOMADLAND will take home the most awards with five wins. In spite of MANK’s domination of nominations, I think the buzz around Chloé Zhao’s film may translate to Oscars success. I have a lot of viewing to do still!