2021 Oscars Predictions Scored

Last night, the 93rd Academy Awards provided one of the strangest Oscars ceremonies in recent memory. Of course, the COVID-impacted event was going to take on a different shape, and with Steven Soderbergh as producer, the Academy Awards were certainly not going to be totally normal. But from taking place in a train station to a baffling lack of clips to a big, anticlimactic shuffling of the final categories and acting upset, Film Twitter and beyond had some thoughts. In my opinion, the 93rd Oscars were just fine, and hey, I’ll quote myself from Twitter last night. “The Oscars are a weird cultural thing because yeah if you haven’t seen these movies, it looks like silly self-congratulation. And it is. But hey, some or even a lot of the work is worth congratulating.” Amen, myself.

NOMADLAND was the biggest winner with three awards (I guessed it would be, but with five), although MANK going into the event was the most nominated at ten; the latter ended up taking home two wins. As ever, my predictions were totally off.

Before getting into that, however, I thought I’d provide my ranking of the Best Picture nominees from a quality perspective, not just the selection of a winner based on what I think about the Academy’s tastes. From best to worst:

• NOMADLAND
• MINARI
• SOUND OF METAL
• JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
• THE FATHER
• MANK
• PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
• THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7

And now, I’ll bold the actual winner, while my prediction will be marked with a *.

Best Picture

• THE FATHER
• JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
• MANK
• MINARI
• NOMADLAND*
• PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
• SOUND OF METAL
• THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7

Best Director

• Lee Isaac Chung — MINARI
• Emerald Fennell — PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
• David Fincher — MANK
• Thomas Vinterberg — ANOTHER ROUND
• Chloé Zhao — NOMADLAND*

Best Actor

• Riz Ahmed — SOUND OF METAL*
• Chadwick Boseman — MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
• Anthony Hopkins — THE FATHER
• Gary Oldman — MANK
• Steven Yeun — MINARI

Best Actress

• Viola Davis — MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
• Andra Day — THE UNITED STATES VS. BILLIE HOLIDAY
• Vanessa Kirby — PIECES OF A WOMAN
• Frances McDormand — NOMADLAND*
• Carey Mulligan — PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN

Best Supporting Actor

• Sacha Baron Cohen — THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
• Daniel Kaluuya — JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH*
• Leslie Odom Jr. — ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI
• Paul Raci — SOUND OF METAL
• Lakeith Stanfield — JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH

Best Supporting Actress

• Maria Bakalova — BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM: DELIVERY OF PRODIGIOUS BRIBE TO AMERICAN REGIME FOR MAKE BENEFIT ONCE GLORIOUS NATION OF KAZAKHSTAN*
• Glenn Close — HILLBILLY ELEGY
• Olivia Colman — THE FATHER
• Amanda Seyfried — MANK
• Youn Yuh-jung — MINARI

Best Original Screenplay

• JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH*
• MINARI
• PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
• SOUND OF METAL
• THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7

Best Adapted Screenplay

• BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM: DELIVERY OF PRODIGIOUS BRIBE TO AMERICAN REGIME FOR MAKE BENEFIT ONCE GLORIOUS NATION OF KAZAKHSTAN
• THE FATHER
• NOMADLAND*
• ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI
• THE WHITE TIGER

Best Animated Feature Film

• ONWARD
• OVER THE MOON
• A SHAUN THE SHEEP MOVIE: FARMAGEDDON
• SOUL*
• WOLFWALKERS

Best International Feature Film

• ANOTHER ROUND*
• BETTER DAYS
• COLLECTIVE
• THE MAN WHO SOLD HIS SKIN
• QUO VADIS, AIDA?

Best Documentary Feature

• COLLECTIVE*
• CRIP CAMP
• THE MOLE AGENT
• MY OCTOPUS TEACHER
• TIME

Best Documentary Short Subject

• COLETTE
• A CONCERTO IS A CONVERSATION
• DO NOT SPLIT
• HUNGER WARD
• A LOVE SONG FOR LATASHA*

Best Live Action Short Film

• FEELING THROUGH
• THE LETTER ROOM
• THE PRESENT
• TWO DISTANT STRANGERS*
• WHITE EYE

Best Animated Short Film

• BURROW
• GENIUS LOCI
• IF ANYTHING HAPPENS I LOVE YOU*
• OPERA
• YES-PEOPLE

Best Production Design

• THE FATHER
• MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
• MANK*
• NEWS OF THE WORLD
• TENET

Best Cinematography

• JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
• MANK*
• NOMADLAND
• NEWS OF THE WORLD
• THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7

Best Costume Design

• EMMA*
• MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
• MANK
• MULAN
• PINOCCHIO

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• EMMA*
• HILLBILLY ELEGY
• MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
• MANK
• PINOCCHIO

Best Original Score

• DA 5 BLOODS
• MANK*
• MINARI
• NEWS OF THE WORLD
• SOUL

Best Original Song

• “Fight for You” — JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
• “Hear My Voice” — THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
• “Husavik” — EUROVISION SONG CONTEST: THE STORY OF THE FIRE SAGA*
• “Io Sì (Seen)” — THE LIFE AHEAD
• “Speak Now” — ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI

Best Sound

• GREYHOUND
• MANK
• NEWS OF THE WORLD
• SOUL
• SOUND OF METAL*

Best Film Editing

• THE FATHER
• NOMADLAND*
• PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
• SOUND OF METAL
• THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7

Best Visual Effects

• LOVE AND MONSTERS
• THE MIDNIGHT SKY
• MULAN
• THE ONE AND ONLY IVAN
• TENET*

I scored a 12/23 this year, a 52 percent over last year’s 38 percent. Hey, I’ll take it. And it must be said, since a lot of the discourse around this year’s Oscars was that the average Joe had not, would not, could not, or should not see these movies, that many of these movies are worth seeing.